CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE CROP PRODUCTION IN PAKISTAN – A CASE STUDY OF WHEAT CROP PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY

Abstract

Climate is changing with forecasting for a consistent increase in temperatures and a gradual reduction in the winter precipitations in Pakistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhuwa (KP). These changes in Pakistan is started since 2000 and are expected to be continue until 2030 with a stability after 2040. This increase in the seasonal temperatures, expected to be around 2OC, with regular reduction of winter precipitation will have an adverse effect on crops production, corps life cycles, crop quality and crops existence in a cropping system. The productivity and land under cultivation of a crops is also at risk with equal opportunities for some existing or new crops. Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) as staple food crop in Pakistan is grown on about 40% cropped area. Its cultivation in KP approaches on about 60% area as rainfed which yield a very low i.e. 60% of the national average yield of wheat (i.e. 2000 kg ha-1). Protein content of the local wheat is also very low i.e. 12.8%. Yield comparison of high yielding variety (HYV) to optimize sowing time for an agro-ecological conditions (AEC) are in process since long ago but the quality issue of the wheat grain and expected climate change is equally important to be taken in consideration to minimize wheat production cost and improve soil with sustainable measures for the future growing population. This study aims to apply split N to what HYV and compare their yield with focus on grain protein under changing climate. Increase N showed a significant (p<0.05) increment in wheat grain yield, which was due to healthy traits of the plant tillers. The optimum N-rates for wheat was 140 kg ha-1 in the cropping system for the soil. The split applications of N coincide with the plant demand as per crop growth and development is of major interest of the study. Three splits over the traditional two splits have shown better yield which associated with healthy traits i.e. spikes length, grain number per spike and grains weight. The longest spike with maximum grain number and their weight under three splits either 25:25:50 or 25:50:25 at the time of seedbed preparation, tillering (70 DAS) and close to anthesis (100 DAS), respective is the best N-application to wheat in future expected climate change. Three splits application to crops especially wheat has resulted better grain yield with higher grain quality (i.e. protein content) and ensures better soil fertility at crop harvest for sustainable cropping system