Abstract:
Climate change is a serious threat to agricultural productivity and food security. These changes are more critical in arid and semi-arid areas. Crop growth models are the tools used for transformation of traditional production technology to adapt changing climate. Keeping in view the current climate change impact on agriculture a two years field study was conducted at Faisalabad, Sheikhupura and Hafizabad. The experiment was laid out in Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with split plot arrangement. There were three replications. Transplanting dates (1st, 15th and 30th July) were randomized in main plots while fine rice varieties (Super Basmati, Shaheen Basmati, Basmati-2000, and Basmati-515) were randomized in sub plots. Data were collected on crop growth, development, yield and light interception using standard procedures and analyzed statistically at 5% probability (Steel et al., 1997). CSM-CERES-Rice model in the shell of Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT v 4.5) was calibrated, evaluated and validated. After this the model was used for assessing risk, under changing climate of Punjab. Number of fertile tillers per m2, kernels per panicle, 1000-kernels weight, total dry matter, paddy yield, leaf area index, radiation use efficiency, length width ratio and water absorption ratio were significantly affected by environments (years, locations), transplanting dates and varieties. Model calibrated phenology for four varieties reasonably with RMSE 2.5, 1.3, 2.8 and 1.6 for anthesis, 2, 3, 2 and 3 for physiological maturity, 0.99, 0.87, 0.1.21 and 1.01 for LAI, 766, 745, 742 and 227 kg ha-1 for TDM and 138, 740, 264 and 241 kg ha-1 for yield of Super Basmati, Shaheen Basmati, Basmati-515 and Basmati-2000 respectively. Climate change analysis indicated drastic effects of increase in temperature on rice production. Under the current scenario, it seemed that yield will decreased by 16.5% to 30.7% from early to late century (2014-2099).
