Abstract:
Climate in Pakistan gradually increases in severity in north-south direction;
this is also the general flow direction of Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) and
canal commands. Thus, in general crop water demand increases and rainfall decreases
in head-tail end direction of the canal commands. Insufficient delivery of canal water
in comparison to increasing cropping intensities and water demands has lead share of
groundwater irrigation to be at par with canal supplies. This has given birth to
groundwater mining problems and increasing irrigation costs in tail ends of the canal
systems. The research was conducted in Lower Bari Doab Canal (LBDC) irrigation
system to explore way out to curtail and reverse abnormal groundwater lowering
trends at tail ends of canal systems and ensure equity of irrigation costs.
Data regarding canal water, groundwater depth and quality, spatial climate
variability and crop water requirement was analysed. Groundwater model of the area
was developed using Groundwater Vistas software. Groundwater pumping by the
farmers was the most complex parameter; crop water deficit approach was adopted to
estimate it on Kharif and Rabi season basis. Different canal water reallocation
scenarios encompassing 50 years time were developed and simulated. Most plausible
reallocation pattern from head to tail end of the command was found for achieving the
combined cost and quality equity of canal and groundwater use in the command.
At prevailing pattern and average cropping intensity of 159.7%, the annual
crop consumptive use requirements increases from 1051 to 1152 mm from head to tail
end respectively, with 9.6% increase. Annual normal rainfall decreases from 472 mm
at head to 212 mm at tail end, with 55.1% reduction. Net crop consumptive use
requirement (after accounting rainfall contribution) is 725 mm at head end and 908
mm at tail end (distributed over CCA), thus 25.2% larger at tail end of the command.
Canal supply is fairly uniform at distributary head, with out any trend in head tail end
perspectives. Balance of crop water requirement is largely met by groundwater
vpumping to the tune of 492 mm at head to 518 mm at tail. Groundwater recharge from
canal supplies and rainfall reduces from 430 mm at head end to 285 mm at tail end.
Groundwater depth varies from 4-8 m at head end to 14-20 m at tail end.
Groundwater mining is taking place at tail end @ 0.34-0.60 m/year, whereas in head
end areas groundwater levels are stable. About 49.35% area, mostly between LBDC
canal and Ravi River is fresh. The areas on left side of the LBDC command i.e. head
reach, upper part of the middle reach and a small patch in tail reach near Jhanian town
fall under saline to marginal quality. In general groundwater quality improves towards
the tail end. Excessive lowering of watertable has made groundwater pumping 2.37
times and overall irrigation cost 2.19 times expensive in tail reach areas of the
command. With continued equitable canal water supply, after 50 years from now, tail
end farmers will be bearing 3.17 and 3.92 times of irrigation costs than at head end, in
case of Stochastic (S) and Post LBDCIP (P) flow series, respectively.
With 25% reallocation from head towards tail end (with linear variation in
between and comparatively less reallocation form saline head end areas) improves the
standard deviation of cost inequity from 1905 to 323 and 1607 to 241 for S and P flow
series, respectively. There is also net saving in groundwater pumping cost of 7.24 to
18.9% for the area in comparison to existing equitable canal water distribution. With
this approach, at least no or minimal waterlogging in the head end area even during
wet years and at the same time, no groundwater mining in the tail end can be
expected. It is recommended that canal water duty may be re-established in
consideration of spatial variability of climatic parameters (rainfall and ET) within and
amongst the canal systems in the region.
Temporal and spatial analysis of groundwater quality, travel time calculations,
solute transport simulation and MODPATH run do not show much vulnerability of
lateral saline intrusion, due to very slow movement of groundwater, except salts up-
coning from deep saline water in Shergarh sub-area is posing the threat.