ELECTORAL POLITICS IN NWFP. 1988-1999

Abstract

The main objective of this study is therefore to provide one of the detailed analysis of electoral politics and voting behaviour in NWFP. This study challenges the common perception in NWFP that voting decisions are largely determined by social factors such as traditional ‘feudal’ relationship, and ties of family, faction, clan, or tribe. It argues, that political determinant of voting behaviour, such as party and party leader’s loyalty in urban areas and patronage orientation in rural areas, are more important than social determinants of voting behaviour. The scope of study is limited to NWFP. It focuses on the results of National Assembly and Provincial Assembly from 1988- 1997 (Elections 1988, 1990, 1993, 1997). This study is based on both published and unpublished sources as well as on information collected in interviews with politicians and political observers. Perhaps the most original contribution of this work is extensive quantitative and qualitative analysis of electoral data, particularly polling stations returns. The focus of this study is to enquire about the events and circumstances that lead to the determination of the voting behavior, practical participation and involvement of masses in the electoral process; and to analyse different factors which have affected electoral politics and voting behaviour in NWFP. This thesis is the answer of main research question i.e to what extent electoral politics affect voting behaviour of people in NWFP? In other words who is voting for whom and why? What are the determinants of voting behaviour and electoral politics? The research works starts from two assumptions/hypothesis. First, it has been assumed that social factors were the dominant determinants that effect voting behavior and second is political determinants that predominantly effect voting behavior in NWFP. To answer the basic research questions and assumptions electoral models including sociological model often identified as School of Columbia, the psychosocial model also identified as School of Michigan, and rational choice theory, also referred to as a model of economic voting, or even as School of Rochester, were utilized in this research work. The period under study have unique significance, as the rules of electoral systems were same, restoration of democracy and repeated elections. During this period there were four national and provincial elections were held. They provide considerable scope for an analysis of electoral politics. INTRODUCTION In this study an attempt has been made to determine electoral politics and voting trends in NWFP during the period 1998-99. The literature on electoral behaviour reviewed in thesis indicates that there is difference of opinions among scholarly community and have little consensus on what determines voting behaviour in NWFP. Some scholars have emphasised the importance of a groups, while others have maintained the role of the individuals. Some have argued that the decisive factor is kinship, while others have asserted that it is a class. Some have highlighted the role of socio economic changes while others have stressed the role of local power structure. These different interpretations underscore the complexity of the problem and compelled the researcher to select this topic for research. This study has a multidimensional approach towards analysing the determinants of electoral politics and voting behaviour in the NWFP. The main objective of this study is therefore to provide one of the few detailed analysis of electoral politics and voting behaviour in NWFP. This study challenges the common perception in NWFP that voting decisions are largely determined by social factors such as traditional ‘feudal’ relationship, and ties of family, faction, clan, or tribe. It argues instead, that political determinant of voting behaviour, such as party (and party leader) loyalty in urban areas and patronage orientation in rural areas, are more important than social determinants of voting behaviour. The scope of study is limited to NWFP. It focuses on the results of National Assembly and Provincial Assembly from 1988-1997 (Elections 1988, 1990, 1993, 1997). This study is based on both published and unpublished sources as well as on information collected in interviews with politicians and political observers. Perhaps the most original contribution of this work is extensive quantitative and qualitative analysis of electoral data, particularly polling stations returns. It is important to understand electoral politics in the NWFP because of the region’s unique strategic importance, cultural characteristics and colonial political and economic heritage of the region1. Since the creation of NWFP as Governor’s Province in 1932, the people of NWFP were allowed to choose their representatives under 1935 Indian Act through election. First elections were held in 1937 in NWFP after the promulgation of 1935 Act. Before discussing Electoral Politics in detail first the researcher would like to elaborate the introduction of NWFP. NWFP is the North Western Province of Pakistan. It is located on both banks of the river Indus and stretches from the Himalayas in the north to the deserts in the south where its borders touch with Baluchistan and Punjab Provinces. On its west, is Afghanistan, which is accessible via the Khyber. On its north, the Northern areas and north- east lies Kashmir. The capital of the province is Peshawar. It covers an area of 74,521 Sq. Km. according to 1998 census, the total population of NWFP was approximately 14 million out of whom 52% are male and 48 % are female. The density of population is 187 per sq. km. North West Frontier Province, runs for over 1100 Km (680 miles) along the border with Afghanistan. The valley of Peshawar, fertile and well watered by Kabul and Swat rivers, is its heart. The northern half of the province consist of five rivers valleys running roughly parallel, north to south: the Chitral, Dir, Swat, Indus and Kaghan. These valleys are on the northern edge of the monsoon belt, so are fairly green and partly wooded in their southern sections. Northern Chitral and the upper regions of the Indus valley are mountainous deserts, where cultivation depends entirely on irrigation. The NWFP south of Peshawar is below the monsoon belt and consists of low, Rocky Mountains and wide, gravely plains. Nearly one third of the population of NWFP is non-Pakhtun. In the border area of Hazara and DI. Khan, social norms are present which more closely resemble those in Punjab and Kashmir. Clan groups remain important, but mainly as social networks, particularly for marriages. Chitral has a separate language and culture of its own. This cultural difference also affected voting trends in NWFP. ANP is considered to be the Party of Pakhtun , so non- pukhtuns areas in this province voted in favour of national/religious parties or independent candidates. Around 68% of the households in NWFP are Pashto speaking, 18% are Hindko speaking while Saraiki is the mother tongue of 4%. Around 8% of households speak local languages, such as Kohwar in Chitral district, while Urdu and Punjabi speaking migrants accounts for only 2% of the households. With the exception of Sindh, Islam came to NWFP earlier than to any other part of South Asia. In NWFP, central districts, like Mardan, Swabi, Charsada, Peshawar and Nowshera were the stronghold of the ANP. In southern districts like Kohat, Hangu, Bannu, Lakki Marwat, Tank, Karak and DI Khan, there were mixed religio-political situation during the period under study. Hazara region, comprising Haripur Hazara, Abbottabad, Mansehra, Battagram and Kohistan had their political affiliation with PML-N in 1990s. Northern NWFP including Dir, Malakand, Swat, Buner, Shangla, and Chitral had mixed political affiliation with PML-N and PPP. Ethnically not all of them come from a Pukhtun dominated or Pushto speaking area but have also a distinct different tinge and tone of culture, language or dialect of their own. Bannuwals call their lingua franca Bannussi (Bannusay) and not Pushto. Kohistani ‘Pushto’ is again not easily comprehensible by many. Apart from these variations Hindku is the second largest language of the province. On the basis of ethnic politics of ruling political party ANP in NWFP and its alliance with PPP at Federal level, the NWFP was renamed as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa under eighteenth constitutional amendment on 15 April 2010.2 The name of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was NWFP during the period under study, so NWFP will remain with same nomenclature in this study.