Abstract:
The South Asian subcontinent has an unmatched geo-strategic salience. On the
lateral plane it connects the Middle East with the Far East and on the longitudinal axis
it is the gateway to the Indian Ocean for Russia, China and Central Asia. As a
landmass, it dominates the oil routes from the Persian Gulf to the Bay of Bengal. It is
also important because one fifth of the humanity resides in this region. The area has
tremendous prospects for growth but its progress has been stunted because for the past
six decades it has been wracked by wars and near warlike situations. It is a perennially
instable region. At the heart of the conflict lies the unresolved issue of Kashmir.
Since no solution seems forthcoming, this area is expected to remain turbulent in the
near future.
The nuclear explosions of May 1998 have impacted in various ways on the
stability of the region. It has mainly created a state of mutual deterrence between
India and Pakistan, which is somewhat akin to the situation that prevailed within the
superpower equation during the Cold War. This form of fragile stability has its
advocates and detractors. Some are of the view that due to the short warning times
and sudden spikes of tension witnessed in South Asian context, the likelihood of
moving quickly up the escalation ladder and crossing the nuclear Rubicon are far
greater than the East West conflict. There is, however, historical evidence that during
Cold War was equally dangerous. There were a number of touch and go occasions,
when nuclear weapons were brandished aggressively but better sense prevailed
because of the specter of the ‘mutually assured destruction.’ Nuclear deterrence in
short became the guarantor of strategic stability during the East West conflict.
Carefully calibrated the fear of mutual destruction can keep stability in South Asia
too. This study is devoted to understanding the dynamics of strategic stability based
on the ubiquitous use of nuclear weapons in the South Asian scenario.
