SINO-US RELATIONS: IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN

Abstract

The thesis has addressed one central question: what are the implications of Sino-US relations post 9/11 for Pakistan’s security. The thesis maintains that amicable Sino-US relations would enhance Pakistan’s security, while Sino-US rivalry would erode Pakistan’s security. Within this context, Sino-US competition post 9/11 has diminished Pakistan’s security at the domestic and regional levels. Theories of realism, neo-realism and complex interdependence provide an interesting theoretical framework to explore underlying features of Sino-US bilateral relations post 9/11. Sino-US relations at the strategic, political and economic relations can be explained on the basis of realism, neo-realism and complex interdependence. Ever since the 18th century, Sino-US relations exhibited both conflict and cooperation. In the geo-strategic environment of the post 9/11 era, China’s rise to power in Asia has made Sino-US relations complex. A broad convergence of interests has prevailed in the US-China relations to maintain stability at the international level, yet divergences have developed at the strategic and economic levels in the Asia-Pacific region. Sino-US economic interdependence and trade has marked mutual stakes. Within this context, the US pivot Asia strategy of global forward defence and the Chinese counter balancing move of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has held implications for Pakistan’s security post 9/11. Sino-US relations post 9/11 has had strong implications for Pakistan’s domestic and regional security. At the domestic level, Sino-US competition has eroded Pakistan’s security through increasing political violence and reducing socio-political cohesion in the country. At the regional level, Sino-US competition has diminished Pakistan’s security vis a vis India and Afghanistan. Where India is concerned, Sino-US rivalry has increased Pakistan’s traditional rivalry with India, reduced India-Pakistan deterrence stability and weakened Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir. However, the Indo-US strategic nexus has allowed China to forge a strategic partnership with Pakistan. Pakistan’s security vis a vis Afghanistan has suffered due to the spill-over affect of Afghan instability and militancy into the western border of Pakistan. India-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership has further deteriorated Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan.