Dynamics of returns and conditional volatility: Hedging Insights and Portfolio Implications of Oil and Gold Investments in Pakistani Stock Market

Abstract

This thesis explores the dynamics of returns and conditional volatilities for stocks at sector level in Pakistan and commodities such as oil and gold with a view to shed light on the portfolio implications and hedging insights. We utilize DCC-GARCH, ADCC GARCH and GO-GARCH models for the sample period January 2000 to December 2014. The conditional volatility parameters extracted from multivariate GARCH models; are used to construct the optimal hedge ratios and portfolios weights between sector stocks-oil/gold pairs. The results of the study signify that long and short term volatility persistence are evident of volatility clustering in all markets under consideration. The results for asymmetric volatility dynamics indicate that negative innovations in returns for all series except for gold asset tend to increase the future volatility more than positive innovations of similar size. This pushes the investors to consider safe haven assets during turbulence time in stock market. Furthermore, the results of the study demonstrate that conditional correlations are mean reverting across all pairs during the entire period of the study. The time-varying patterns of conditional correlations between all pairs help to investigate the hedge and safe haven properties for oil and gold assets. During the economic downturns 2007-2009, a downward pattern in correlations displays that oil asset play a role of safe haven asset only for health care industrial sector stocks whereas gold maintains status of safe haven asset for all sector’s stock except telecommunication and utilities industrial sectors. The evaluation of risk diversification in stocks portfolio and hedging potential of oil and gold assets for all pairs indicate that adding oil and gold to a stock portfolio improve the overall risk-adjusted return performance. For instance, investors in Pakistan should allocate more stock than oil and gold assets in their vi

portfolios. The stock market’s investment risk can be hedged by taking the short position in oil and gold markets. The time-varying pattern in hedge ratios for all sectors and alternative assets indicates that investors should update their hedge position regularly according to market conditions. Finally, the efficiency of allocation weights of oil and gold assets in risk reduction varies across industrial sector stocks. The findings of the thesis enable the policy makers, portfolio managers as well as investors in their decision related to the markets under consideration.