Challenges to the Strategic Stability in South Asia-Post 1998: A Pakistani Perspective

Abstract

Strategic stability remains a contested concept and has been described by various scholars differently, based on their understanding and reading of particular strategic environment. Most explanations, however, stem from the ―Cold War‖ experience but contain instructive lessons for a region like ―South Asia‖ that has some similarities as well as significant differences. Introduction of nuclear weapons in 1998 that was followed by two successive military crises between the two nuclear armed neighbors in 1999 and 2001-02, further reinforced commonly held precepts that nuclear weapons help deter war between two nuclear armed states. Some, however, disagree with this conclusion, citing the increased number of crises in the post-1998 period that continues to threaten strategic stability in the region. This study therefore aims to discuss the concept of strategic stability from a Pakistani perspective in the post-1998 security environment that continues to be shaped by various external and internal factors besides evolving military capabilities and doctrines in the region. Besides, providing historical narrative and underlying causes of perpetual animosity between the two South Asian neighbors that had led to number of wars in the pre-1998 era, the study aims to highlight Pakistan‘s political, diplomatic, and economic challenges that continue to influence national decision-making process in the country. So far, Pakistan has managed to balance its shortcomings by developing potent conventional and nuclear deterrence to deal with an existential threat emanating from its Eastern neighbor; nevertheless, the growing IndioUS strategic partnership that is aimed to help build India as a regional hegemon could adversely affect strategic stability in the region. Based on these factors this study would aim to offer recommendations that could address Pakistan‘s national security challenges besides providing a path towards long-term and enduring stability in the region.