Integrated Economic Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Rice- Wheat System in Punjab, Pakistan

Abstract

Agricultural scenarios vary due to climate change because agriculture is highly dependent on weather patterns. Local climate shifts resulting from global climate change could have major impacts on crop yields and food security. In Pakistan, the temperature is rising by an average 0.5 °C per decade. Due to increasing temperatures, the crop water demand is expected to increase, and better crop management practices are necessary. There is a research gap about climate change impacts and adaptation to agricultural development in Pakistan. Quantification is necessary to provide decision makers adequate information to lessen the impacts of climate change or to adapt them. This is the purpose of climate change impact research and adaptation analysis. In this study, an important rice-wheat cropping system of Punjab was analysed. An extensive farm survey of 155 farmers was designed. From the study area, five districts were incorporated: Sheikhupura, Nankana Sahab, Hafizabad, Gujranwala and Sialkot. Yield simulations with two crop models, the Decision Support System for Agro Technology Transfer (DSSAT) and the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), were used in a socio-economic impact assessment. Five selected General Circulation Models (GCM) were used for crop modelling, and yield simulations were analysed for both crop models and each GCM. The Tradeoff Analysis Model for a Multidimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD) version 6 was used for the analysis. Climate change and adaptation impacts on poverty, net farm returns and per capita income were calculated for different scenarios. The major crop (wheat and rice) yield simulations, livestock and other related data for the analysis were taken from the ‘AgMIP-Pakistan’ project database. The analysis was carried out on a per farm basis. The average total sampled farm area in each district was 176.5 hectare. In the case of wheat, the average farm output was 18,376 kg, and the mean net farm returns were PKR 204,908. In case of rice crop, the average production was 18,376 kg, and the mean net farm returns were PKR 257,513. For cattles, the average milk production was 3,281 litre / farm and the mean net farm returns were PKR 59,813 per year in the study area. For sorghum and lucerne, the mean production was 135 tonnes per farm, and the mean net returns were PKR 54,189 per farm. In the case of jwar, maize and bajra, the mean production was 87.3 tonnes per farm, with mean net returns of PKR 29,032 per farm. The study assessments revealed that in the case of climate change impacts on current agricultural production systems, the number of losers ranged from 73 to 85 percent. Losers are categorized as the farmers who would be economically worse off under a changed climate. With current climate, the observed poverty rate would be 24.4 percent, and for CC, the estimated poverty rates were from 28 to 32 percent. The results of CC influences on upcoming farming systems analysis indicated, number of losers would range from 59.5 to 77 percent. With current climate, the projected poverty rate would be 12.8 percent; however, in the case of climate change, it would range from 13 to 15 percent. The adaptation results indicated that the percentage of adaptation technology adopters would range from 65 to 76 percent. With adaptation strategies, the poverty rate would change from 11 to 13 percent in the study area. These findings indicated that proposed adaptations could have a significant impact on offsetting climate vulnerabilities.