Abstract:
The maximum temperature has led to several complications in our day to day life in the city
of Karachi. Rising temperature has affected human health and in some cases has led to the deaths of
civilians. In this study, the temperature data of Karachi city in Pakistan over period from January 2005 to
December 2015 is assessed. A preliminary graphical method added with the analysis of Autocorrelation and
Partial Autocorrelation Function indicated that the data is not stationary and has seasonal factor. SARIMA
model of order (0, 0, 2) with seasonal order (2, 1, 1) and period 12 is used to forecast the maximum
temperature of the Karachi city over a period of 12 months. We use R software to complete this study. This
study will help the policy makers and the insurers to better plan for the future.
